In truth, Liu Biao had no intention of exploiting Yuan Shu's bereavement to launch an attack. However, the moment Liu Biao crossed the Yangtze River and advanced into Northern Jingzhou, Yuan Yao died shortly afterward. By that time, Liu Biao had already captured Nan Commandery. Could he really retreat after that?
Because of this, Liu Biao decided to proceed without hesitation, planning a counteroffensive against Xiangyang. After waiting for so long, he finally had a good opportunity. To forgo this chance just because Yuan Shu lost a son would not be virtuous—it would be foolish!
Liu Biao was not that naive. He immediately branded Yuan Shu as a national traitor who had stolen the Imperial Seal and thrown the realm into chaos, continuing his campaign against him.
Previously, Liu Biao had been heavily suppressed by the likes of Liao Li, Gu Yong, Jiang Qin, and Yu Fan—figures who would later become prominent ministers of Wu. Moreover, Zhou Yu had ordered the Yangtze River to be blockaded. If it weren't for Liu Biao's fear of Yuan Shu's power, Zhou Yu would have easily taught Liu Biao a lesson.
However, after Zhou Yu and Sun Ce were placed under house arrest last year, with Liao Li, Gu Yong, Jiang Qin, and Yu Fan subsequently sidelined, Liu Xun, Li Feng, and Ji Ling replaced them in Jiangxia and Xiangyang. Later, Yuan Shu, seeking to stabilize Yangzhou, recalled Ji Ling to Shouchun. Under such circumstances, this became Liu Biao's only chance to turn the tide. Liu Biao couldn't rely on Liu Bei to create an opening for him forever—who knew if he would get another chance like this?
Kuai Yue, Liu Biao's strategist, advised him to march on Nan Commandery. It was known that Liu Biao was arguably the weakest warlord in the land. This weakness didn't stem from a lack of capable generals or ministers but from a weak foundation.
At this point in time, the Central Plains should have been experiencing the devastating effects of the epidemic that would continue until the population was reduced to about ten million. It was only then that Zhang Zhongjing would create Qinghao Tang, a treatment that would eradicate the epidemic. However, in this timeline, the first outbreak was swiftly dealt with thanks to Chen Xi's extraordinary interventions and Hua Tuo's medicine.
Moreover, the herb Artemisia annua was distributed across the country, from the north to the south and from east to west. After Hua Tuo publicized the formula, the plague, which historically would have decimated the population alongside famine, was effectively eradicated.
As for famine, in historical times, famine typically resulted from large-scale migrations of the population fleeing the plague. However, as long as the government existed, even if the officials were incompetent, widespread starvation was unlikely to occur during non-disaster years.
Currently, whether it was Yuan Shao in the north, Liu Bei in Taishan, or Cao Cao in Chenliu, all were regarded as heroic leaders by the standards of the time. Even though Cao Cao was known to be ruthless, he didn't harm his own people. While his 50% tax rate might seem outrageous, at least it allowed the other 50% of the population to survive.
As for Yuan Shu, he was an oddity. His expenditures were large, but it must be acknowledged that as long as tax revenue exceeded his expenses, he wouldn't raise taxes. He didn't concern himself with the common folk, treating them like bees that only needed to produce enough honey for him—he didn't care about anything beyond that.
Originally, after the great plague, when the population decreased and Yuan Shu's expenditures exceeded tax revenue, his treatment of the populace as insignificant would have effectively increased taxes on individuals. However, since the plague hadn't occurred in Yuzhou, the population under Yuan Shu's rule had actually increased, thanks to his control of parts of Yangzhou and Jingzhou. As a result, his tax burden, spread out over a larger population, actually decreased.
It's worth mentioning that Yuan Shu's soldier-to-civilian ratio was on par with Liu Bei's, with Yuan Shu maintaining an army of 200,000. Of course, these troops were well-equipped, but their combat effectiveness was another matter. Unlike Cao Cao or Yuan Shao, Yuan Shu didn't have self-sustaining military colonies, nor did he have Liu Bei's construction corps...
To Yuan Shu, such things were unnecessary, and since no advisor had suggested otherwise, he saw no need for military colonies. He had plenty of money and food, so he didn't bother with things like that. This is why, despite controlling so much valuable territory, he could only bully minor warlords.
In short, Liu Biao was incredibly weak compared to the three major warlords in the Central Plains, so his only hope for victory lay in seizing opportunities. This time, he had been handed a golden opportunity. The dangerous figures that Kuai Yue feared had either been placed under house arrest or sidelined, and Liu Zhang, who had inherited his father's official position, was eager to make a name for himself!
Liu Zhang, who had only recently inherited the wealth left behind by his father, Liu Yan, had spent a year consolidating power in Yizhou with the help of Wang Lei, Huang Quan, Wu Yi, Zhang Ren, and Yan Yan. However, Hanzhong was still occupied by Zhang Lu.
Originally, Zhang Lu was just a pawn deployed by Liu Yan to block orders from the central government and the Qiang tribes in Yong and Liang, allowing Liu Yan to become a local tyrant. But after Liu Yan's death, while Liu Zhang was busy consolidating Yizhou, Zhang Lu successfully turned Hanzhong into a theocratic utopia.
In simple terms, Zhang Lu had seized the inheritance that Liu Yan left for Liu Zhang. Now, with Liu Zhang newly installed as Governor of Yizhou, he was filled with a sense of responsibility—how could he allow what his father left him to be taken by someone else?
The current situation was that the usually timid Liu Zhang had found some courage, and the civil and military officials of Yizhou, who had been idle for too long, were eager to show the world the might of Yizhou. This led to the formation of two large armies.
One was led by Zhang Ren, who spearheaded a northern campaign against Hanzhong, while the other was commanded by Yan Yan, who led an army downriver from Yizhou to Jingzhou, planning to attack Hanzhong from Shangyong. This campaign also served to test the strength of the Central Plains warlords.
It was clear that the strategists of Yizhou—Zhang Song, Liu Ba, Huang Quan, and Zheng Du—didn't consider Yuan Shu a significant threat. In their view, if they were defeated, they could always retreat to Yizhou, where no one could reach them. Even so, they informed Liu Biao, intending to use him as a shield, under the pretext of supporting a fellow member of the imperial clan.
Although Kuai Yue saw through their plot, it was an open scheme. After Kuai Yue revealed the intentions of Zhang Song and the others, Liu Biao hesitated only briefly before mobilizing his troops, promising to return Jingzhou to Yizhou once it was captured.
Thus, with both sides harboring their own agendas, Liu Biao and Liu Zhang launched their campaigns. Compared to Liu Zhang's grand army, Liu Biao's forces seemed paltry, but in terms of results, they were evenly matched.
Yan Yan, determined to prove himself, swiftly captured Baidi, which significantly boosted the morale of the civil and military officials of Yizhou. Initially, they had feared they might be unprepared as they ventured out of their remote region, but after seeing their success, they were filled with confidence. The so-called "Three Great Warlords of the Central Plains"? They were nothing!
With their confidence soaring, Yan Yan, under the direction of Zhang Song, Wang Lei, Qin Mi, and Liu Ba, advanced rapidly. By the time they reached Shangyong, Yuan Shu's side finally responded. However, at that point, Yuan Shu's pathetic intelligence network still mistakenly believed that Liu Biao had merely retaken Northern Jingzhou.