"How insidious." Humfrey finally understood. "The Queen will surely be furious when she receives the news. Even if the Black Dragon is injured and cannot fly to burn Winterfell, she will definitely order you, My Lord, to take immediate action. By then, we will not only have to disrupt our original plan, but Dreadfort will also interfere, stealing much of the credit."
Although indignant, Humfrey had one virtue. He never lost his composure because of emotion. After cursing, he calmed down. "But even so, Lord Bolton is merely playing a trick to gain greater benefit for himself. Detestable, yes, but we cannot conclude the news is false because of that, can we?"
"Correct. Crown Town's intelligence network has not yet extended Beyond the Gift. The information I have now is completely insufficient to determine the truth. So we might as well consider this in two scenarios." Aegor narrowed his eyes. "The first scenario is that the news is basically true. In that case, I cannot accuse Bolton of ulterior motives for informing me. Everyone has motives. But do not forget, all the preparations Crown Town has been secretly making since the Battle of Long Lake were based on the worst case from the very beginning. And our plan never relied on unexpected support, and the final deduction is still the same. As the world's only professional army equipped with Powder weapons and aided by Dragons, as long as we remain cautious, we can crush all resistance in the North and open a path south."
"Now, Roose Bolton has stepped forward, willing to be my ally. It seems like an unexpected boon, and it will indeed make subduing the North much easier. But after that, he demands a reward, to replace Stark and become the new Lord of the North, and he demands our support. How many resources and how much energy will the Gift have to spend?" Aegor said coldly. "Stark is deeply loved among both nobles and common folk in the North and on the Wall, while Bolton is the opposite. For Bolton to rise to power, eliminating Stark is unavoidable. And even if Stark is eliminated, ruling under the hostility of the entire North is like walking on thin ice, and will require constant support from the royal government."
"Wouldn't that allow the royal government to strengthen its control over the North?"
"Listen to me." Aegor tapped the table. "If the news is true, whether we cooperate with Bolton depends only on weighing the benefit of his help against the cost of replacing the Lord of the North. But if the news is false, the nature of the matter becomes extremely malicious."
"What is our goal? To create a smooth North South passage so that weapons and ammunition from the Crown Town base can be transported to the southern front by a safe and stable land route, and to have a retreat path in case of temporary setbacks. The North and the rest of the Seven Kingdoms are separated by the natural barrier of the Neck. Whoever rules it, given enough time, will become independent and arrogant. So, in the blueprint I planned for the Queen, the North was always one of four autonomous regions, like the Westerlands, Dorne, and the Vale. Instead of going to great lengths to replace the old ruler with an unknown new one, it is better to leave it in the hands of the honest, decent, and easily managed Stark. As long as Robb lowers his head and accepts my terms, this vast and sparsely populated land, if taken and dragged into a long security war... I would not bother to take it even if it were given to me."
"But if Roose Bolton, through conspiracy and fabricated news, enrages the Queen who has just lost a Dragon, and provokes conflict between two sides that could have coexisted peacefully, turning something I could have achieved with a small trick, simply using deterrence to force Stark to yield, into a full scale war, trapping the elite troops and two Dragons, who should have passed quickly through the North to conquer the Seven Kingdoms, instead trapping them here unable to free themselves for a long time, forcing us, who should be doing great things, to remain here only to serve his family's private ambitions... what would you think of that?"
Humfrey opened his mouth. "If that were true, it would indeed be extremely malicious, and hanging him ten times would not be too much."
"Exactly. Simplify the model and everything becomes clear. If what the informer said is true, it is already within our expectations. We do not need Bolton's help. We can easily handle Stark's seemingly flawless plan and continue our original strategy. But if the news is false, then it seems as if there is a traitor among the northern lords, and it seems we can use that to save effort. But in reality, while you think you are saving a little effort, someone else is thinking about how to make us work and bleed entirely for him."
Humfrey's eyes widened and he swallowed hard. "My Lord considers things thoroughly. If I were in charge of a region, I fear I would be sold and still help count the money."
"There is no need to belittle yourself. Everyone has their place and task. Doing your own job well is your greatest value. As for where to go and how to get there, that is my task as the guide."
Aegor spoke casually. In truth, he had kept Humfrey in the room not to discuss strategy, but because he needed someone trustworthy and tight lipped beside him to feel secure.
If guards stood nearby, it would reveal too much fear. If he met a stranger alone, what if that person was a Faceless Man capable of killing him without a weapon? This was a world where magic existed.
Standing high above where the wind howled, he finally understood the almost paranoid caution of Cao Cao from the historical tales.
Although convinced, Humfrey had a new question. "But if My Lord already knows you will not cooperate with Bolton regardless of whether the news is true or false, why did you reveal our real plan to that envoy just now and tell him that the so called Beyond the Wall expedition was fake?"
That was indeed a good question. Aegor nodded. "Let me ask you. If you were Bolton, and your attempt to inform the Queen failed, and then you came to see me but received no response... would you give up, abandon your schemes, and obediently continue serving Stark?"
"Of course not. I would panic and look for every possible way. A Targaryen with a blood feud against Stark, riding a Dragon, has come to the North. The opportunity to defect is a once in a lifetime chance."
"I think so too. So what would you do if you were Bolton?"
"Me?" Humfrey was deeply trusted by Aegor, even more so than Yam, the Town Chief of Crown Town. But his strengths lay in understanding and execution, not in creativity or strategy. Normally he would admit he did not know. But this time he quickly guessed, because Aegor had already shown the correct method earlier. "I would spread the news of this Assembly of Northern Lords and let it sweep across the entire North and the Gift. My Lord can order Ser Jarman Buckwell to keep outsiders from meeting the Queen, but it is impossible to isolate Her Grace from the whole world. Once everyone, including the Gift army and the civilians, hears this news, then war between the Night's Watch and the North will truly be unavoidable."
"Correct. Bolton would not do this at the start because it would expose that there is a traitor among the Northern lords, which carries enormous risk. But if we give him no hope or response, he will take the risk and spread the news. Words are like wind, but strong wind can topple ships and trees. Inciting hatred and war through public opinion is simple. Even when we use this double edged sword, we must be careful. If, while we are carefully controlling the fire of public opinion, fearing it may grow out of control, a stranger suddenly throws in a barrel of wildfire, then it will become unstoppable." Aegor had witnessed how a few slips of paper he scattered turned into war, and how others quickly learned the trick and spread even more chaos. His understanding was deep. "Once the fire grows out of control, the first to be burned are those who lit it."
At this point, Aegor realized that releasing only a little of the real plan might not keep Bolton's envoy calm for many days.
"Go make arrangements. Gather an Industry Instruction Team. First, go to the trading post outside the city to meet this Corley Snow. Find out exactly how many men are in his group and where the raven cages are placed. Then tell him that I already have a rough plan, but Dreadfort must wait for instructions before acting. After he sends this message by raven, invite him back to the inner castle on the pretext that I have important matters to discuss with him, and then detain him and all his companions. Do not give them any chance to cause trouble."
"Ah?" Humfrey was startled. "This... after all, he came to inform us and discuss an alliance. Would this not be inappropriate?"
"There is no inappropriate." Aegor raised his voice and spoke sternly. "We are plotting for the realm. Success makes us lords and rulers, failure makes us criminals. No amount of caution, or even shamelessness, is too much. Often it is tiny details that ruin everything. Remember that."
"Understood. I will make the arrangements at once."
Crown Town became busy. An operation against the informer quietly began to take shape. Meanwhile, dozens of miles away in Eastwatch by the Sea at the eastern end of the Wall, a secret envoy from the North had just finished his meeting with the Commander there.
(To be continued.)