It felt like a dream.
Sitting in a comfortable and luxurious palanquin, his corpulent body swaying slightly with the steady steps of the strong bearers, Illyrio Mopatis felt both astonished and terrified.
His original purpose for crossing the Narrow Sea to Westeros was not simply to see Daenerys.
Nearly a month ago, when he received the news of Varys's death in the spacious and luxurious mansion of the Archon of Pentos, he learned that his only close friend and greatest partner, the man who had proposed and planned the audacious scheme that lasted twenty years, had inexplicably lost his life in a castle in a frigid northern land. That place had never even been part of their plan. Worse still, the killer was a retainer Illyrio himself had sent.
At that moment, Illyrio believed he had experienced the greatest shock and terror of his life.
But he was wrong.
And he was terribly wrong.
After hearing the bad news, his first reaction was not grief or fear, but a suffocating sense of urgency. Varys's death meant that the grand play they had prepared and arranged for nearly twenty years had suddenly lost the director who controlled everything from the center of the stage just as the final act approached.
All the chips they had pushed onto the gambling table, after exhausting half their lives and spending everything they possessed, even borrowing beyond their means, were now at risk of ending with nothing. Worse, they might even end up working for someone else's benefit.
How could this be allowed?
Without hesitation he ordered ships prepared and the route arranged. He departed from Pentos for Westeros immediately. His intention was to arrive before Daenerys led the Night's Watch and the northern army south to King's Landing, before the plan suffered irreversible changes. He wanted to seize the baton left by Varys and complete the task his friend could no longer fulfill. He would bridge the gap between the two Targaryens, facilitate the marriage alliance between Daenerys and Aegon, and allow the black and red dragon bloodlines to merge in a historic union.
With such a goal in mind, one could imagine how stunned and bewildered he felt when Illyrio's fleet sailed into Blackwater Bay and was stopped by patrol warships. The sailors then told him that Daenerys had not only fallen out with Aegon and beaten him soundly before driving him away, but had also taken King's Landing in a single battle. During the process she had even defeated the Iron Fleet and killed the King of the Iron Islands.
That grand and complicated plan, once magnificent and carefully arranged, had been thrown into complete chaos. It had not merely approached the edge of losing control. It had already passed that edge and was on the verge of collapse.
When had everything begun to fall apart?
Illyrio reflected on it and felt cold and disoriented.
Was it when Varys risked his life to travel north personally to meet Daenerys? No. That journey had been unavoidable. It was a desperate measure meant to correct the chaos and return events to the proper course. If Petyr Baelish had gone north and Varys had not followed, the Queen would have been completely manipulated and controlled by Littlefinger.
Was it when Daenerys suddenly stood up her so-called nephew and abandoned the planned meeting between the two monarchs in order to ride a dragon to the Wall? No. That was done to deal with the White Walkers. It was a perfectly reasonable decision. After all, no one would wish to rule a kingdom filled with the dead.
Tracing the timeline further back in this way, attempting to clear his thoughts and find the root of the problem, he quickly discovered many other deviations from the original plan.
If Viserys had not angered Khal Drogo and received a "golden crown," and if Drogo had not then died from a foolish wound infection, his enormous khalasar would have invaded Westeros as agreed. They would have served as perfect cannon fodder before Aegon's triumphant return.
If the affair between the Lannister twins had not been exposed so early and had not prematurely triggered the Six Kingdoms' siege of the Westerlands, Aegon and the Golden Company would not have needed to enter the stage ahead of schedule just to balance the situation. They would not have lost the advantage of surprise and the benefit of striking later.
Or if Daenerys had not unexpectedly carved out her own sphere of influence in Slaver's Bay, Illyrio could have easily sent someone to bring her back under his control. He could have taken possession of her three young dragons and arranged her marriage to Aegon before her ambition expanded alongside her power and ruling experience. That would have extracted her full value at once.
And suppose...
No, that was wrong.
Illyrio suddenly raised his hand and pinched his thick thigh hard.
The thick layer of fat meant the pain was slight, but it was enough to snap him out of his memories and fantasies. History could not be rewritten with "suppose." This kind of self pity was the worst possible thinking.
The direct cause of the plan's failure might exist, but he would never discover it through speculation alone. Reason told him something else as well. The current situation was certainly not caused by a single accident. The truth was probably that mistake after mistake and change after change had accumulated into such a massive deviation that even a genius like Varys could no longer steer events back onto their original course. In the end, the entire plan collapsed.
What mattered now was not discovering the cause. What mattered was minimizing losses and recovering as much as possible.
...
Unlike Tywin Lannister, who could admit defeat, take the black, and leave matters to his family, Illyrio Mopatis had no retreat.
He had no relatives, and after the death of his beloved second wife Serala, he had never remarried. Aegon was his only child.
In order to fulfill the grand plan of placing his bloodline upon the Iron Throne, he had already emptied his fortune. On the surface he was still the immensely prestigious Archon of Pentos, one of the wealthiest men in the Free Cities. In reality, his wealth had long been exhausted by supporting Varys's travels and connections, by funding countless conspiracies and subversions, and by hiring and maintaining powerful forces such as the Golden Company.
To prevent his finances from collapsing, he had already mortgaged and overdrawn everything he owned. His assets, credit, and connections had been completely consumed. The staggering debt he owed was comparable to the Iron Bank's entire annual income.
Such a terrifying debt could never be repaid through normal means.
If he could not place Aegon on the Iron Throne, fulfilling his lifelong ambition while securing the position of Master of Coin promised by Jon Connington, using the revenue and royal assets of Westeros as collateral to maintain his creditors' trust and delay repayment, then he would go bankrupt many times over in an instant. Furious creditors would hunt him down, and he would not even be able to live out his old age in peace.
The bad news was that the Iron Throne had already been melted down by Daenerys. No matter how capable he was, he could no longer literally place Aegon upon it.
The good news was that his child was still alive, and they still had the powerful Reach as an ally. Furthermore, he himself had once sheltered Daenerys. With that connection, if he requested an audience, she could not openly refuse him.
If he could persuade Daenerys not to hunt Aegon relentlessly, then once the situation stabilized he might still find opportunities. For example, assassins could slip through the secret passages beneath the Red Keep. Or kitchen servants might be bribed to poison her food.
The chance of turning the situation around was slim, but it still existed.
Just as he was rapidly considering his remaining arguments and leverage, the palanquin suddenly stopped.
"My lord Illyrio, we have arrived."
He strained to push his head out of the window and discovered that the palanquin had stopped before the gate of a certain mansion at the foot of Aegon's High Hill.
Damn it.
That queen was not living in the Red Keep.
(To be continued.)
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