Chapter 400: The Non-Aggression Treaty
Because of the series of wars the East African Kingdom has waged in South Africa, the Cape Colony has had its hands full from May to July. Communication and transportation delays mean that by the time the news reached Cape Town—some ten-odd days later—East Africa had already finished its Southern Front by June. Only in July did Cape Town learn that Basutoland had been half-occupied and the Zulu Kingdom destroyed.
Ernst said, "Now we have to stabilize the Orange Free State. We can't let them come up with unrealistic ideas. After this war, aside from Cape Town, the Orange Free State is the strongest power in all of South Africa. We need to send negotiators to the Orange Free State, first to fix the borders and then to express our goodwill."
One subordinate asked, "Your Highness, the matter of Griqualand is rather complicated. How should we address it?"
Ernst answered, "Emphasize Griqualand's low value. We definitely have to give the British some face, but it's impossible for us to withdraw from Griqualand. We can order Mölk to reinforce the military presence opposite Kimberley—at least a brigade across the Vaal River—and hold a small exercise, fire a few artillery shells to put pressure on Cape Town, forcing them to compromise on their own."
"Your Highness, won't that risk future retaliation from Britain?"
Ernst: "It doesn't matter. Britain can't do much to us. We're not planning any more expansions. We'll slowly absorb what we've taken, wait for things to settle, then consider other plans."
Rather than calling it "hidden patience," it's more that East Africa's appetite is already satisfied for now. Going any further could risk collapse. The long supply line between South Africa and East Africa (through Zimbabwe) is a heavy burden on the kingdom. The good news is that a telegraph line in Zimbabwe is currently being extended in that direction; once the line reaches South Africa, they won't be as handicapped as they are now in terms of contact and coordination.
…
Orange Free State, Bloemfontein
When the East African Kingdom attacked the Transvaal Republic—a close ally—the Orange Free State government had initially planned to send troops to help. However, seeing East Africa's stunning achievements, they had to reconsider. The Transvaal Republic collapsed too fast, and what's worse, it hardly inflicted any real losses on the East African Army. Assessing their own strength, the Orange Free State concluded it couldn't oppose East Africa.
Even so, they carried out an emergency mobilization, ready to defend against an East African invasion at any time. Fortunately, once the East African Army took Wijnburg, it didn't move south. Instead, it constructed outposts along the Vette River. Judging by appearances, they had no intention to attack. Then, acting on behalf of Ernst, Sivitt arrived as an envoy to the Orange Free State, aiming to reduce hostility—or, in other words, ease the Orange Free State's wariness toward East Africa.
Sivitt said, "President Brand, hello. I am Sivitt, special envoy from the East African Kingdom, here to talk with your country about our mutual security."
Brand demanded, "Hello, Your Excellency Sivitt. May I ask the significance of your East African Kingdom stirring up so much trouble in South Africa?"
Sivitt answered plainly, "Nothing but our interests and strategic security."
"Security? You East Africans have already shown your powerful armed forces in South Africa. Is there anything more threatening than you?" Brand said.
Sivitt replied, "Of course there is. From our viewpoint, none of the other powers here—Orange Free State included—pose much threat, but no country on Earth can ignore Britain's existence."
"Indeed. You Germans and the British are both trouble," Brand thought angrily. Aloud, he said, "You're so far from Britain—do you really fear them? If anyone should worry, it's surely us in the Orange Free State."
Yes, indeed the Orange Free State is right beside the Cape Colony. By the Bloemfontein Agreement, Britain once acknowledged the independence of Orange and the Transvaal. But after the development of the Kimberley mines, the British showed renewed interest in the Orange Free State. Now, the British haven't settled, and from the north comes the German presence—truly a predicament.
"That's not the same," Sivitt explained. "We don't believe the Transvaal or the Orange can truly keep the British from expanding in South Africa. After all, just the Zulus alone gave the Transvaal huge trouble, and the Transvaal even covertly supported indigenous rebels on our own soil. That's an absolute red line. No country would tolerate such provocation."
"Damn that Andries Pretorius Jr.!" Brand cursed silently. Still, as an ally, he felt obligated to defend the Transvaal's reputation. "Your Excellency Sivitt, small Pretorius is just a fool riding on his father's coattails. He's worthless. His actions don't represent the Transvaal as a whole."
Sivitt responded, "Alright, then there's nothing more to say. The Transvaal can't be restored. The victor stands and the loser falls; that's how it is. Now that the Transvaal is ours by right of conquest, it can't be handed back."
Brand said, "So for what purpose have you come to the Orange Free State?"
Sivitt explained, "Our kingdom's intention is straightforward: we want a non-aggression treaty. The East African Kingdom has little interest in your state, and we need a buffer between our kingdom and the Cape Colony. But you must not turn to Cape Town for protection. Otherwise, we definitely won't stand by."
"Huh, your country is quite overbearing," Brand replied, laughing bitterly in anger.
Sivitt said, "You probably wouldn't believe me if I said otherwise. Our East African Kingdom has always honored our promises and not broken them lightly."
Brand asked, "But how can you assure us you have no ambitions toward the Orange Free State?"
"Haha! Mr. President, that's a narrow suspicion. If we say we're not interested in your country, we really aren't. Let me give you one statistic so you'll know I'm not lying. This time, our East African Kingdom deployed nearly sixty thousand troops—and that's without using indigenous cannon fodder," Sivitt explained.
A bunch of war maniacs, Brand thought.
"But if you have that many soldiers, you've taken so many territories, and then you claim no interest in the Orange Free State—doesn't that seem contradictory?"
"Mr. President, in these past few days, I imagine quite a few former Transvaal citizens have fled to your state, correct?"
"That's something I'm aware of, yes."
"So let me ask: having expelled them from their original lands, do you think they might hold a grudge against East Africa?"
"… Probably, yes," Brand admitted.
"Then think: if we were you, would we let such resentful people settle in a place that could pose a threat to us?"
"Certainly not."
"There you have it. Yet we've driven the Boers straight into the Orange Free State—boosting your strength. Moreover, they'll be a steadfast force against East Africa. So what do you suppose is our reason?"
"I'm not sure…"
Sivitt said, "Handing those Boers over to you basically increases your power. Put it bluntly: the Orange Free State has nothing worth our kingdom coveting. More harshly, our army could easily have destroyed the Transvaal and then done the same to you. Our main forces are still in Pretoria, not even deployed. The troops on the Vette River alone would give you a hard time."
After a barrage of "logic," Brand realized the truth: East Africa wasn't afraid of the Orange Free State. They simply didn't care. Their power gap was too huge.
"Alright, Your Excellency Sivitt. What are you asking of us?"
Sivitt said, "As I mentioned, sign a treaty ensuring the Orange Free State's independence. Remain neutral between the East African Kingdom and the Cape Colony. Beyond that, we have no demands."
Brand quietly breathed a sigh of relief. That wasn't a bad arrangement, at least not harming the Orange Free State's interests. Therefore, East Africa and the Orange Free State signed a 'Non-Aggression Treaty' with a 30-year term.
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