Strictly speaking, this matter was another accident caused by poor planning—I wanted to disrupt Littlefinger's scheme, and I succeeded. Up to this point: Petyr himself has lost favor in King's Landing, and the final chess piece he planted in the Vale is facing encirclement and suppression. The grand ambition of a master schemer was dug out and exposed to the sun by me, an outsider, and then thoroughly destroyed. But when I came up with this idea, I only thought about Petyr alone and forgot that among the adulterous man and woman in the story, there was also the woman...
Thus, now the interests of this "clever" mastermind himself are also facing the threat of runaway rumors... Aegon smiled bitterly. As expected, there is no perfect outcome in the world. It's normal to have a few side effects when dealing with a major villain so easily. Since things have come to this, regretting is useless. What I need now is to judge the direction of future developments and try to profit from them—or at least minimize potential losses.
As an outsider with limited understanding of this world, Aegon's independent analysis of the situation's development would inevitably be flawed. It would be much better to have a well-read person who grew up in Westeros as a reference and participant in discussions.
Therefore, Tyrion also learned of this news that night.
After discussing it, the two reached a very bad conclusion: war is probably unavoidable.
...
From Aegon's perspective, knowing the truth, what the League of the Righteous did could certainly be called righteous: taking the young son of the former liege lord away from his pathological and neurotic mother, who had murdered her own husband, and placing him under the joint upbringing and education of several great families with no rebellious intentions, so that he could grow into a healthy, well-rounded, honorable, and righteous qualified ruler of the Vale... The ideal is beautiful, but the problem is that although the information Aegon released was the truth, it was spread by word of mouth in the form of rumors. This point alone dictates that people may believe it, but they cannot disrupt the ruling order because of it!
As King of the Andals, the First Men, and the Rhoynar, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms, and Protector of the Realm, Robert could never accept that one of his great vassals was suddenly controlled by a group of lower-level minor vassals. Allowing such a farce of subordinates defying superiors to run rampant would severely trample the authority of the top ruler—failing to protect a vassal is the greatest shame for a liege lord. Even if the accusations against Lysa Tully are proven true, it can only be handled by the King, not for you to make a mess!
It's very overbearing, but this is how feudal society operates.
***
"The Iron Throne and this... 'League of the Righteous' will likely engage in a period of negotiations from a distance, but it's highly probable that no result will be reached," Tyrion analyzed. "Robert has made many compromises to stabilize the Kingdom since the establishment of the new dynasty—giving up pursuing the royalist actions of the Martell of Dorne and the Tyrell of the Riverlands, marrying my older sister to secure an alliance with the Lannister, asking Jon Arryn to serve as Hand of the King to stabilize the Stark, Tully, and Arryn families, whose benefits and merits after the war were disproportionate... These are all great families. Although compromising with them is frustrating, it's not shameful. But who are families like Royce and Waynwood?"
"Moreover, our good King has been idle for several years and has long been itching for action. Tournaments can no longer satisfy him," the Dwarf frowned. "Even if only to re-experience leading troops, Robert will not make any concessions. And that so-called League, since they have already acted, they will never give up the results they have achieved and return home dejectedly to await punishment!"
Just as Aegon didn't deny Robert's incompetence, he also dared not ignore his military ability. Fighting him, who was both King and an excellent general, was one of the most foolish things in the Ice and Fire World. The fate of Balon Greyjoy's rebellion was the best warning: "What is the confidence of these people? How can a few Earl families in the Vale fight Robert?"
"Their confidence lies in the Blood Gate and the Kingdom's strained finances—simply put: a dangerous pass that has never been breached, and Robert's empty money bag," Tyrion said. "For thousands of years, the record of the Blood Gate being breached head-on has remained zero. The League of the Righteous themselves outsmarted it with internal spies, so they will definitely not give Robert the chance to try the same... And the fact that the treasury is empty, as long as there are ears in the court, is basically common knowledge. Once Robert's army is frustrated below the Blood Gate and stays there eating and drinking for a month or two, they will have no choice but to compromise."
"With no money in the treasury, if a war breaks out, Robert will definitely borrow money from his vassals." So that was it, Aegon felt a chill down his spine: "Our creditors are highly likely to redeem their bonds, and even the investment we just agreed upon is likely to fall through!"
"That's right, the situation we are facing now is very troublesome..." Tyrion also gasped. "If Robert marches into the Vale of Arryn, my Father will more or less inevitably send troops to show support. Although my family has a lot of money, it doesn't fall from the sky. Now it's even impossible for me to borrow money from home..."
"We need to calculate our accounts. What kind of test can our capital chain currently withstand?"
...
After some addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, they reached a conclusion: immediately disband all employees, stop factory construction, withhold wages and delay engineering payments, gather all the money in their hands, including personal property and the Iron Throne's "allocations" to the Night's Watch, and even give up considering future food and accommodation issues. The capital chain could withstand 70% of redemptions—this was a good result, considering the game had just begun and they hadn't wasted money.
If the redemption rate was below half, the startup could continue on a small scale, but the capital chain would be precarious and at risk of breaking at any time; if it was above half but below 70%, then the two could only barely survive and hope that Robert could quickly win and return to court; if it was above 70%, then Aegon could pack his bags and prepare to head east to rely on the Mother of Dragons, and Tyrion could start drafting how to ask his Father Tywin to clean up his mess.
After all, Tyrion was Tywin's son. Even if he was down and out, he wouldn't suffer too much. But as a Night's Watch deserter who failed at "scamming" in King's Landing and ran away, what would the Mother of Dragons gain by taking him in?
...
"Impossible..." Aegon's face twisted slightly with exasperation. The feeling of having one's financial path cut off was not pleasant, and the key was that the entity that might be about to cut off his financial path wasn't a specific "person," so he had nowhere to vent his anger.
"Don't panic. The more you panic, the less you can think of ideas. We are the first to know the news," Tyrion comforted him. "Think about whether we can do something with this time difference?"
The words "time difference" suddenly reminded Aegon, and a flash of inspiration struck him: If he had accidentally learned this kind of inside information before crossing over, what would he do?
Sell off stocks that might plummet due to this negative news and shift to markets related to military industry.
Even if this war breaks out, it will only be a local conflict. Even if Robert is defeated below the Blood Gate, the few Earl families in the Vale won't have the courage or strength to counterattack out of the Vale of Arryn. On the contrary, after expending some energy in this local war and transferring some of the internal contradictions accumulated over the years, the overall situation in Westeros will stabilize for a while—my financial game won't collapse, as long as I grit my teeth and get through this period!
"We immediately purchase a large amount of grain and military supplies. Once the news gets out, the prices of these things will definitely skyrocket. We can use the price difference to make a profit and maintain the stability of our capital chain!"
"What?" Tyrion was startled. "Who would suddenly buy a large amount of these things? You're clearly telling others that you got inside information and want to profit from the war! Don't treat everyone above us as fools!"
"I'm not a normal person, you've forgotten," Aegon narrowed his eyes, suddenly feeling that this idea had potential. "I am the Night's Watch Chief Quartermaster. A hundred thousand Wildlings Beyond the Wall are approaching the The Wall. To prepare for war, I am purchasing a large amount of grain and military supplies to send to The The Wall. Who can say anything? Eddard might pressure me not to raise prices, but he would never cut off my head for this! As long as I make it look good and act convincingly, it will definitely work!"
Tyrion stared at Aegon blankly for a while, realizing that the other party was indeed the Night's Watch Chief Quartermaster, but profiteering from war by snatching food from the tiger's mouth was too dangerous. Should they really gamble like this?
Got it!
The Dwarf's face regained its spirit: "Indeed, your purchase of grain and military supplies is not wrong, but the operation is still too dangerous. I'll give you an idea: pretend to give up the main profits and let everyone get rich together to ensure safety."
—