"More than 100,000 Wildlings from Beyond the Wall are trying to cross The The Wall to escape the prophesied Winter. The Night's Watch is too weak to resist, so change is inevitable. Without change, there is only destruction." Aegon was careful to mention the White Walkers as little as possible, as discussing such things without concrete proof would only detract from the impression he made on others: "However, the reason I am the one organizing this, besides the generous help from Lord Tyrion Lannister, is primarily because I 'haven't offended anyone'."
***
To put it elegantly, the Dwarf had already summarized it with a crude but accurate sentence: "The price isn't too high."
The fundamental reason Tyrion was able to successfully bring Aegon away from The The Wall, aside from the promised funding and a lot of boasting, was that Aegon was an insignificant person at the time. He had no powerful backing, nor did he have any enemies. No one would keep a close eye on him and immediately question Jeor Mormont or complain to Robert the moment he broke the rules.
But if it were the designated heir of an Lord family, forced to take the Black because he chose the wrong side in the War of the Usurper—offending the new King—leaving under such circumstances would be, without exaggeration, impossible while Robert was alive, and still very difficult even after his death. It is an unwritten rule in Westeros that those who chose the wrong side must either switch allegiance on the battlefield or go into exile to survive. The King stands at the top of the ruling pyramid, the biggest beneficiary of the noble game. Unless they are an idiot with negative political sense like Joffrey, they would never lead the destruction of the rules and dig their own grave for a bit of trivial gain.
To leave The The Wall by imitating Aegon's method, one would first need to offer a high price that would greatly tempt the King, and then silence everyone.
Buckwell is wealthy. They might indeed be able to afford a few thousand or even ten thousand golden dragons. But for a warrior King who has been a hands-off manager for years and doesn't know the value of everyday necessities because he hasn't managed a household... This amount of money isn't even a fraction of the loans he owes his father-in-law Tywin and the Iron Bank. Would Robert even care?
Indeed, theoretically, the Night's Watch could disregard the King's thoughts, but in reality, being in Westeros, with everyone under their rule, how many people can truly be indifferent to the feelings of the supreme ruler? Don't be fooled by Lord Frey, Red Viper, Queen of Thorns, Old Flayer... When these people appear, they act more arrogant than the last, as if they all have their own background music and dominating aura. But as long as King Robert, who founded House Baratheon, is alive, and the great alliance of the four houses (Stark, Lannister, Arryn, Tully) doesn't break, any ambitious hero, any capable woman who rivals men, must hide in their own castles and behave themselves!
Even disregarding the attitudes of those outside the Night's Watch, there is a more realistic obstacle: How much effort did Tyrion put in to persuade the Night's Watch high command to let Aegon out? When he was just an "ordinary person," it was so difficult to get the high command to make an exception, let alone for someone like Ser Bookwell, a "political prisoner" and a core member of the Night's Watch Rangers?
The problem is not scarcity but inequality. Once this precedent is set, the Night's Watch will instantly become demoralized: those with connections and backgrounds will desperately try to pull strings to get out, while those with nothing can only watch others scramble with gnashing teeth, consumed by jealousy and then murderous intent... And once this trend begins, both the rulers and the Night's Watch high command, for the sake of themselves, the North, and the Seven Kingdoms, will absolutely put a stop to this phenomenon with a blanket policy to prevent it from worsening. At that point, even I, the Chief Logistics Officer who is honestly "on official business" outside, might have to return to The The Wall.
This is not easy to handle.
***
"I understand." Lord Buckwell understood Aegon's underlying meaning and nodded. It was already a great fortune not to have lost his head for choosing the wrong side in the War of the Usurper. Trying to leave the Night's Watch was indeed pushing his luck, but he still didn't give up: "But I have an idea—since you are the Chief Logistics Officer, if you can somehow interfere with personnel transfers, transfer Jarman to your command as logistical personnel, and then order him to work in the Crownlands, assigning him the task of 'recruiting provisions and military supplies at Buckwell,' wouldn't everyone be happy?"
The idea is perfectly feasible, but Aegon wouldn't tell him that his appointment as Chief Logistics Officer was entirely a half-coaxed, half-tricked position of dubious authority. Ordinary people, upon hearing his title, would subconsciously assume he is the "fifth in command" of the Black Cloaks, after the Night's Watch Commander, First Ranger, Steward, and Artisan. This illusion caused by cognitive inertia is exactly the effect Aegon wants, and it has indeed begun to benefit him gradually...
But in reality? Let alone comparing himself to other "Chiefs," even a random Ranger Captain temporarily has more authority than Aegon. He should be grateful if he can ensure he isn't recalled, let alone dare to pull someone else out?
"Lord, I won't hide it from you." Aegon didn't plan to lie about this, but he could slightly modify his words: "The Logistics Department has just been established, and its authority is temporarily not comparable to the older departments. In terms of personnel, I have the authority to recruit freely, but I cannot transfer anyone who is currently at The The Wall... Of course, this is the current situation, as I've only been in office for two months."
He paused and continued: "Once I develop the Night's Watch Industry, establish a network of connections in the court, monopolize the bulk of the Night's Watch's logistical supply, and then fill The The Wall with the combat personnel I've trained..." Aegon first described the bright future if everything went smoothly, and finally said seriously: "Influence and authority don't just appear out of thin air; they must be fought for. Lord, you've been managing a household for decades, so you must understand this principle."
"I understand." Lord Buckwell nodded. The man in Black before him wanted him to state his position. "I will support what you do in King's Landing as much as possible. As for the investment... If Buckwell hasn't depleted its resources after this war, it will proceed as agreed. I don't mind earning less or even nothing, but please keep Jarman's matter in mind, Chief Logistics Officer."
"You are too kind. The Night's Watch will remember your assistance during this most critical moment for The The Wall's defense."
...
Talking to smart people saves effort. With just a few words, two originally unrelated people, or rather, two minor forces, found their common interests and even agreed on initial cooperation.
Aegon felt a little ashamed. He actually had no way to get someone out for Lord Buckwell, but to secure this investment, he deliberately gave the other party the impression that "I can actually do it, but it's difficult." This is the so-called position determining one's perspective. After starting this financial game, he had gradually transformed from an honest engineer into a smooth merchant—he never forgot to promote his financial products, and he would always try to steer the conversation towards money, investment, and so on...
Not long ago, he was an honest person who didn't lie to anyone except his parents and girlfriend. Now, he could already boast without batting an eye.
Becoming someone he originally disliked wasn't a pleasant thing, but at least he didn't plan to cheat the investors out of their principal. In this cruel world, an outsider with no roots or background couldn't afford to be willful. Littlefinger, one of the major villains in the original story, was easily brought down by a rumor under his interference, but this was because of the power of gossip, not because the other party made any mistakes—in any case, his ability to "manage to profit from any unexpected event" was still worth learning.
Having successfully secured the first investment through persuasion, Aegon walked along, secretly pondering: If Littlefinger were in his position—dragged into the army by a temporary idea from Robert Baratheon at a critical moment of starting a business, wasting countless hours—what would he do?
He got it. This time, the Six Kingdoms are working together to put down the rebellion. For Robert, it might just be a display of his rule and showing off his strength, and incidentally reliving the feeling of war. But for him, the "Night's Watch accompanying the army," most of the prominent nobles from across the country will respond to the King's call in this war to gather and join the allied forces. Isn't this an opportunity to meet a large number of resource holders without having to travel everywhere or rely on connections, just by sitting still?
Opportunity knocks but once. Although Tyrion advised him to enjoy this trip to the Vale, as a man with a strong sense of responsibility and commitment, Aegon couldn't accept it: While his partner was working like a dog in King's Landing, he was just wandering around the Vale sightseeing.
Seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and recoup all the time wasted on this trip by building connections!
—