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City of Odds: The probability Sovereign

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Chapter 1 - Chapter 1: The 0.01% Miracle

The rain in Veridia didn't wash things clean; it just made the grime slippery.

Leo Thorne shivered, pulling his windbreaker tighter as he leaned his cheap e-bike against the brick wall of "Mama Wu's Dumplings." His phone buzzed—a notification from his banking app. He didn't need to look at it to know what it said.

Balance: $14.50.

"Rent is due in two days," Leo muttered, wiping rainwater off his helmet visor. "I need four hundred by Tuesday or I'm sleeping in a dumpster."

He swiped "Complete" on the delivery app. A meager $3 tip was added to his account. It wasn't enough. It was never enough.

As he mounted the bike to head to his next pickup, the sky tore open. It wasn't normal lightning; it was a silent, purple fracture in the clouds that pulsed with a low, bass-heavy hum. The hair on Leo's arms stood up.

ZZZT.

His pocket burned.

"Ow!" Leo yelped, nearly dropping the bike. He fished his phone out. The screen was glowing a blinding white, hot to the touch. The cracks in the glass seemed to be rearranging themselves, flowing like liquid mercury.

Then, the heat vanished. The screen turned black, followed by a single line of neon blue text.

[Booting Probability Engine... 100%]

[Host Identity: Leo Thorne]

[Current Fate Points (FP): 10]

"Great," Leo sighed, tapping the screen aggressively. "Virus. Just what I needed. Bye-bye, phone."

He looked up, ready to scream at the universe. But the scream died in his throat.

The world had changed.

Floating above the damp pavement, hovering over the passing cars, and glowing above the pedestrians' heads were numbers. Pale, translucent percentages.

A businessman walked past him, talking loudly on a headset. Above his head:

[Chance of tripping: 15%]

A stray cat sat on a dumpster.

[Chance of finding food: 88%]

Leo blinked hard, rubbing his eyes. "Okay, stress hallucination. I haven't slept in twenty hours. That explains it."

He looked back at the businessman. The man was walking fast, heading toward a patch of oil-slicked concrete. The number above his head flickered.

[Chance of tripping: 35%]

Leo stared. A strange instinct, like a muscle he had never used before, twitched in the back of his mind. He focused on that number. A mental window popped up in his vision, looking like a sleek holographic overlay.

[Target: Arrogant Salaryman]

[Event: Trip and Fall]

[Current Probability: 35%]

[Cost to Modify: 1 FP per 10%]

"What the hell..." Leo whispered.

He focused on raising the number. It felt like dragging a slider on a touch screen, but with his mind. He pushed it up.

[New Probability: 85%]

[Cost: 5 FP. Confirm?]

"Confirm," Leo murmured, feeling ridiculous.

Ding.

[Fate Points Remaining: 5]

Two seconds later, the businessman's leather shoe hit the oil patch. His arms flailed in a cartoonish windmill motion before he went down hard, his expensive briefcase sliding across the wet pavement right to Leo's feet.

Leo stared at the briefcase, then at the man groaning on the ground.

"It... it worked?" Leo breathed. The adrenaline spike hit him hard. This wasn't a hallucination. This was real.

The businessman scrambled up, his suit ruined. He snatched the briefcase from near Leo's feet, glaring at him. "Watch where you're standing, you gutter rat!" he spat, before limping away.

Leo's shock turned into a scowl. "You're welcome for not making it 100%," he muttered.

He looked at his phone again. The interface was still there, calm and silent. He had 5 Fate Points left. He had just wasted half his "mana" or whatever it was on a petty prank.

"I need to be smart," Leo said, his heart hammering against his ribs. "If this is real... I can fix everything."

He looked across the street. A 24-hour convenience store, the neon "OPEN" sign buzzing. Plastered on the window was a massive poster for the Veridia State Scratch-Off.

Leo gulped. He abandoned his bike and crossed the street, dodging traffic. The numbers were everywhere.

[Chance of getting hit by taxi: 4%]

[Chance of slipping on curb: 1%]

He pushed through the glass doors of the store. The cashier, a bored teenager named Sam whom Leo saw every night, didn't look up from his comic book.

"Pack of gum," Leo said, his voice trembling slightly. "And... give me one of the 'Golden Dragon' scratchers."

"That's ten bucks for the ticket, Leo," Sam drawled. "You sure? That's like three deliveries."

"Just give it to me."

Leo slapped his debit card on the counter. The transaction approved. Balance: $4.50. He was officially broke.

Sam handed him the shiny gold ticket. Leo looked down at it.

[Item: Golden Dragon Scratch-Off]

[Prize Value: $0]

[Current Probability of Win: 0%]

Leo's heart sank. It was a dud. A guaranteed loser.

"Wait," Leo thought. "Can I change the object itself? Or just the outcome?"

He focused on the line that said [Prize Value: $0].

[ERROR. Cannot modify fixed matter states. Can only modify Probabilities of Future Events.]

"Damn it," Leo cursed under his breath. He had bought a losing ticket. The ink was already dry; the result was already determined at the factory. The system couldn't change what was, only what could happen.

He looked around the store, panic rising. He had just wasted ten dollars.

Then, his eyes landed on the lottery terminal behind Sam. The one that printed tickets with randomized numbers on demand. The Daily Draw.

"Sam," Leo said, his voice tight. "Actually, let me get a 'Quick Pick' for the Daily Draw. The one that draws in..." He looked at the digital clock on the wall. "...two minutes."

"You feeling lucky or desperate tonight, man?" Sam sighed, punching the keys. "That's two bucks."

The machine whirred.

Leo focused. He focused harder than he ever had in his life. He stared at the machine as the paper began to feed.

[Event: Printing Winning Numbers]

[Current Probability: 0.000004%]

[Cost to Modify: ???]

A warning flashed in red.

[WARNING: Insufficient Fate Points to guarantee Jackpot.]

[Cost for 100% Probability: 10,000 FP]

"Of course," Leo thought, sweat dripping down his temple. "I can't just become a millionaire with 5 points."

But there was a sub-menu.

[Optimize for Lower Tier Prize?]

Leo mentally clicked it.

[Target: $500 Prize (3 matching numbers)]

[Cost: 4 FP]

"Do it," Leo screamed in his mind.

Ding.

[Fate Points Remaining: 1]

The machine spit out the slip of paper. Sam tore it off and handed it to Leo.

"Good luck, buddy."

Leo held the paper with shaking hands. He stared at the TV screen mounted in the corner of the store, where the local news station was about to announce the numbers.

The balls began to drop.

14.

Leo looked at his ticket. First number: 14.

32.

Leo's ticket: 32.

09.

Leo's ticket: 09.

The fourth number rolled out. 55. Leo had 12.

He didn't care. He didn't care about the jackpot. He stared at the ticket. Three matching numbers.

"Sam," Leo said, his voice surprisingly steady. "Scan this."

"The draw just happened, Leo. Give it a sec." Sam took the ticket and scanned it under the red laser.

The machine played a loud, triumphant jingle.

WINNER - $500.00

Sam's jaw dropped. "No way. You actually hit it? Dude, that covers your rent!"

Leo grabbed the cash that Sam counted out from the register. Five crisp hundred-dollar bills. He held them, feeling the texture of the paper. It was real.

As he walked out of the store into the rain, the system chimed again.

[Achievement Unlocked: First Twist of Fate]

[Reward: +10 Fate Points]

[Daily Mission Available: The City is Watching.]

Leo looked at his e-bike. He looked at the skyscraper in the distance where the city's elites lived—the people who controlled the odds.

He put the money in his pocket and smiled.

"I'm not delivering food tonight," Leo said to the empty street. "Tonight, I'm delivering some bad luck."