A Persian counterattack? Saddam asked, "Qusay, how do you know the Persians will strike back?"
Qusay cleared his throat; he knew his moment had finally come. "Father, last year we caught the Persians off guard, and their purges had crippled the army, so we rolled ahead at first. But since this year the war has bogged down, because Iran has caught its breath and its forces are regrouping."
Adnan's heart jumped; he knew Qusay was telling the truth, yet saying it aloud might anger the President—who hated hearing such things.
Yet Saddam showed no anger; he looked at Qusay and said, "Continue."
"Clearly, Iran has released many political prisoners, especially the junior and field-grade officers who'd been purged. Father, an army's fighting power hinges on the quality of those very officers. Under Khomeini's leadership, Iran is steadily rebuilding its strength, aiming for local counter-offensives."
"So where do you think the Iranians will break through?"
"Father, their raid on the Susangird area is a clear signal—their next move will be to counterattack from Abadan!" Qusay said.
"Seems my dear little brother is quite the prophet. We've ringed Abadan like an iron barrel, yet they'll counterattack from there? Qusay, is this all your imagination, or do you actually read Khomeini's mind?" Uday said in a 'heartfelt' tone.
"By allah," Qusay replied, "a commander must analyze every scrap of intelligence, extract what's useful, and divine the enemy's intent. My dear elder brother, you're only in charge of sports, so naturally you wouldn't understand—but Father and our uncles know it very well."
"You—!" A cold glint flashed in Uday's eyes; such open mockery was unbearable. In Iraq, he feared no one, least of all a younger brother he saw as a threat.
Ignorance of military matters was a pain Uday could never escape. When it came to chasing women or torturing prisoners, he excelled; commanding armies—he simply hadn't the skill.
Intelligence Chief Barzan said, "Indeed, by analyzing intelligence one can guess the enemy's intent. If they intend to open the front at Abadan, they'll mass troops, fuel, and ammunition rearward at Ahvaz—we can detect that, and we can obtain satellite images from friendly nations."
Since the start of the Iran-Iraq War, the U.S.—for its own reasons—had been passing along satellite photos through the embassy whenever Iran staged large operations, to aid Iraq.
"Qusay, how did you deduce the Iranians will counterattack from Abadan?" Adnan asked.
How did I know? Of course I know—the Iranians will push from Abadan and drive Iraqi forces clean out of Iran. I know it all too well. Qusay was aware of the war's course, but he could never say he was a time-traveler—who would believe that?
"War is the continuation of politics," Qusay said. "Father, may I speak freely?"
Saddam looked at his son with appreciation; such a philosophical statement. Resisting Khomeini's export of revolution to protect his own rule was one motive, but there was another equally important one.
"Indeed, fighting without cause is the mark of a foolish leader. We fight for the survival of our Iraq," Saddam said.
"Our main strategic goal is to seize control of the Shatt al-Arab and secure an outlet to the sea. The Shatt is our only waterway to the gulf; our economy depends almost entirely on oil exports, which can only flow out through the Persian Gulf. Originally the entire channel was our territory, the boundary marked by Iran's shallow-water line. Yet the shameless Iranians keep encroaching on our land, so we must fight to gain the outlet we need. Taking Khorramshahr and Abadan, annexing the southwest corner of Khuzestan, will give us ample coastline; capturing Bandar Khomeini will free our oil exports from all restrictions," Qusay said.
When the operational plan had been drawn up, his son had had no access to it—yet now he could list every strategic objective. Saddam grew ever more pleased with Qusay.
"Exactly," Lt. Gen. Hazraj said. "Back in March 1975, under Algerian mediation, we signed the Algiers Agreement with Iran. We accepted the 102-kilometre median line at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab as the boundary; Iran promised to stop aiding Kurdish rebels inside Iraq and to cede 300 square kilometres of land to us—yet that territorial transfer was never honored. We were shamefully deceived. So now we're only reclaiming what is rightfully ours."
"Though we've besieged Abadan for a year, we still haven't taken it," Qusay said. "With Iran, only a swift victory can accomplish our mission. Now it's become a war of attrition; Iran has caught its breath. Their aim is to relieve Abadan, retake Khorramshahr, then occupy our Faw and turn us into a land-locked country."
"Do you think the Persians have the strength for that?" Saddam asked, his face already showing displeasure.
Exactly the reaction Qusay wanted; by painting the consequences so grim, he was paving the way for what followed. "By allah, we must never let the shameless Persian plot succeed. Yet they have rebuilt enough strength to try crossing the Karun and wiping out our expeditionary force. We must stay vigilant and crush Khomeini's scheme," Qusay said. "Father, I have an idea."
"Speak—what clever plan have you now?" Saddam felt his son was showing ever more potential as a general.
"We've dared not enter Abadan city itself to avoid the bloodiest urban combat. When we took Khorramshahr we paid over ten thousand casualties, so we should shun street fighting. Instead, let's lure the Iranians out and destroy them beyond the city," Qusay said.