Chapter 91: War Profiteering?
Strictly speaking, this was another accident caused by a lack of foresight. Egger's attempt to sabotage Littlefinger's conspiracy had succeeded, at least for now: Petyr had lost his influence in King's Landing, and his final chess piece planted in the Vale was facing encirclement. The grand ambitions of a master schemer had been dug up, exposed to the sun, and thoroughly pulverized by an outsider like him with a mere wave of a hand. However, when Egger first devised this plan, he had only been thinking about Petyr. He had forgotten that among the adulterous pair in his rumors, there was also a woman...
Consequently, the brilliant mastermind now found his own interests threatened by a runaway rumor. Egger allowed himself a bitter smile; there truly was no such thing as a perfect solution in this world. To take down a major antagonist so easily, it was only natural for some side effects to appear. Regret was useless now; what he needed was to judge the future direction of the situation and find a way to profit from it—or if not, at least mitigate the potential losses.
As an outsider with limited knowledge of this world, Egger's solo deductions were bound to be flawed. Having a well-read man who had grown up in Westeros to provide reference and join the discussion would make things much better.
Thus, later that night, Tyrion was informed of the news.
After some deliberation, the two reached a very grim conclusion: war was likely unavoidable.
From Egger's perspective—knowing the truth—what the Lords Declarant were doing could indeed be described as righteous: taking the young son of their former liege away from a sickly, neurotic mother who had murdered her own husband, and placing him under the collective care and education of several great houses that harbored no rebellious intent. He could then grow up to be a healthy, capable, and honorable ruler of the Vale... The ideal was beautiful, but the problem lay in the fact that while Egger's information was the truth, it had been spread in the form of a rumor. This fact alone dictated one thing: people might believe it, but they could not be allowed to disrupt the ruling order because of it!
As King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm, Robert could never accept one of his Great Vassals suddenly being controlled by a group of lower-tier minor vassals. To allow such a farce of insubordination to run rampant would be a massive blow to the authority of the supreme ruler. A liege lord's greatest shame is failing to protect his vassals; even if the accusations against Lysa Tully were proven true, only the King had the right to deal with it. It was not the place of minor lords to cause such a ruckus!
It was tyrannical, but those were the operating rules of a feudal society.
"The Iron Throne and this... 'Lords Declarant' will likely negotiate at a distance for a while, but it's highly probable they won't reach a result," Tyrion analyzed. "Robert has already made many compromises to stabilize the realm since the new dynasty was founded—dropping the pursuit of the Martells of Dorne and the Tyrells of the Reach for their loyalist actions, marrying my sister to secure an alliance with the Lannisters, and appointing Jon Arryn as Hand to placate the Starks, Tullys, and Arryns, whose post-war rewards didn't match their contributions... Those are all Great Houses. Compromising with them is frustrating, but not shameful. But who exactly do the Royces and Waynwoods think they are?"
"Furthermore, our good King has been idle for years and is itching for a fight; tourneys no longer satisfy him." The dwarf frowned. "If only to experience the feeling of leading troops again, Robert won't make a single compromise. As for that alliance, since they've already made their move, they certainly won't abandon what they've achieved and slink back home to await punishment!"
Just as he didn't deny Robert's incompetence as a ruler, Egger didn't dare ignore his military prowess. Being both a King and an excellent general made fighting him one of the stupidest things one could do in this world; the fate of Balon Greyjoy's rebellion was the perfect warning. "Where does their confidence come from? How can a few count-level houses from the Vale fight Robert?"
"Their confidence lies in the Bloody Gate and the kingdom's strained finances—simply put: an impregnable pass that has never been fallen, and Robert's empty coin purse," Tyrion said. "For thousands of years, the record for the Bloody Gate being taken by frontal assault remains at zero. Since the Lords Declarant took it through trickery with an inside man, they definitely won't give Robert a chance to do the same... And the fact that the treasury is broke is common knowledge to anyone with ears in the court. Once Robert's army hits a wall at the Bloody Gate and spends a month or two eating and drinking in place, he'll have no choice but to compromise."
"With no money in the treasury and a war breaking out, Robert will surely borrow from his vassals." Egger felt a chill down his spine as it clicked. "Our creditors will likely want to redeem their bonds, and even the investment we just negotiated is probably going to fall through!"
"Exactly. The situation we're facing is very troublesome..." Tyrion also hissed through his teeth. "If Robert marches on the Vale, my father will undoubtedly send some troops to help out as a gesture. My family has a lot of money, but it doesn't fall from the sky. This makes it impossible for me to even borrow from home..."
"We need to run the numbers. What kind of test can our capital chain survive right now?"
...
After some quick math, they reached a conclusion. If they immediately laid off all employees, halted factory construction, withheld wages and construction payments, and pooled all their cash—including personal assets and the appropriations from the Iron Throne to the Night's Watch—while ignoring future food and lodging, their capital chain could survive a 70% redemption rate. This was a decent result, a benefit of the game having just started and them not having spent recklessly yet.
If redemptions were below 50%, the venture could continue on a smaller scale, though the capital chain would be in constant danger of snapping. If it was between 50% and 70%, they could only struggle to survive and hope Robert won quickly. If it went above 70%, Egger might as well pack his bags and prepare to head east to join the Mother of Dragons, while Tyrion could start drafting a letter to his father, Tywin, asking him to clean up the mess.
Tyrion was Tywin's son, after all; even if he failed miserably, he wouldn't suffer too badly. But for Egger—a Night's Watch deserter who ran a scam in King's Landing and then fled—why would Daenerys even want to take him in?
...
"This can't be..." Egger's face twisted slightly with frustration. The feeling of someone cutting off your path to wealth was never pleasant, and the worst part was that the one about to do it wasn't a specific "person" he could lash out at.
"Don't panic. The more you panic, the less likely you are to find a solution. We're the first to know the news," Tyrion soothed him. "Think: can we use this time gap to do something?"
The words time gap suddenly sparked a flash of inspiration in Egger's mind. Before transmigrating, if he had accidentally learned this kind of insider information, what would he have done?
Dump stocks that might crash due to bad news and pivot to the military-industrial market.
Even if this war broke out, it would only be a local conflict. Even if Robert failed at the Bloody Gate, the Vale lords lacked the courage or strength to counter-attack out of the Vale. On the contrary, after venting some energy in a local war and draining some internal tensions accumulated over the years, the overall situation in Westeros might actually stabilize for a while. His financial game wouldn't collapse; he just had to grit his teeth and survive this stretch!
"We immediately buy up a large amount of grain and military supplies. Once the news breaks, prices for these things will surely skyrocket. We use the price difference to make a profit and keep our capital chain stable!"
"What?" Tyrion was startled. "What normal person suddenly buys a massive amount of that stuff? You'd be flat-out telling everyone you have inside info and want to be a war profiteer! Don't assume the people above us are idiots!"
"I'm not a normal person—you forgot again." Egger narrowed his eyes, sensing this idea had legs. "I am the Chief Logistics Officer of the Night's Watch. A hundred thousand wildlings are approaching the Wall. To prepare for war, I'm buying up supplies to send North. Who can say anything? At most, Ned might pressure me not to gouge prices, but he'd never take my head for it! As long as I keep the optics clean and play the part convincingly, it will work!"
Tyrion stared at Egger for a moment, realizing the man indeed was the head of logistics for the Watch. But war profiteering was like snatching food from a tiger's mouth; it was dangerous. Should they really gamble like this?
Wait!
The dwarf's face regained its color. "True, there's nothing wrong with you buying supplies. but it's still too risky to pull off alone. I have a way for you: pretend to give away the lion's share of the profit. If everyone gets rich together, then we'll be safe."
Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/MistaQuartz
On Patreon, you can explore Extra Chapters in advance!