Chapter 450: Population Crisis
With the economic crisis acting as a catalyst, East Africa experienced a rare wave of immigration. In East Africa, the term "immigration wave" refers specifically to German immigrants, not others. If East Africa were to fully open its immigration policy, population growth would spiral out of control.
Thus, in 1874, East Africa took the opposite route by further raising immigration thresholds and tightening health screenings. Don't underestimate the significance of health checks—this alone disqualified a large number of candidates who failed to meet Ernst's expectations.
The 19th century was a time of both darkness and development. People in the 21st-century Far East might find the West's drug problems chaotic, but it was the 19th century that was truly lawless. Back then, drugs weren't seen as a societal problem—they were normalized.
Ernst had witnessed this firsthand in his previous life in Africa. The lifestyle of many Africans resembled that of pre-modern societies outside of Europe and North America. Junkies on African streets were common, not to mention that unlike Americans who used refined, high-tech drugs or Mexican imports, African substance abusers would use anything—cough syrup, glue, even aviation fuel.
In the 19th century, things were simpler. It was all about opium and chemical medications—cheap and unregulated, easily accessible to ordinary people.
So once East Africa tightened health screenings, over 20% of prospective immigrants were immediately filtered out. And it wasn't just drug abuse—other health and social metrics were considered too.
Any rational person in Ernst's position would be fearful of such rapid population growth. You don't feel it in a day or two, but over time the flaws in the initial immigration policies become painfully obvious.
East Africa's population growth was now the fastest in the world. Take the United States as a point of comparison—its population grew from 5 million in 1800 to over 23 million by 1850, more than fourfold.
If East Africa followed the same population model, by the end of the 19th century, its population would exceed 40 million. But East Africa was clearly not the U.S. Fertility rates were even higher, and the public's desire to have children wouldn't wane for at least 30 more years.
Ernst didn't need to overthink this. In the 21st century, many older generations in rural Far East regions still believed in "more children, more blessings"—Ernst's own parents included. As an agricultural society, East Africa would cling to that mindset for a long time, even if it industrialized rapidly.
Most industrialized nations experience a population explosion in early industrialization stages. East Africa might skip this because it was already in the midst of such an explosion while still having only a basic industrial framework.
So even with improved productivity and healthcare, East Africa's population growth wouldn't skyrocket again—because it was already at its natural limit.
This was due to social distribution issues. Although the Hechingen royal family's wealth was separate from the national treasury, Hechingen capital drove national development. The government's revenue was limited, but so were its expenditures.
Despite operating under a planned economy, East Africa had only a handful of small-scale state-owned factories. The largest source of government revenue was agricultural taxes.
And those taxes were no joke—East Africa wasn't just an agricultural country; it was a major agricultural power. Its agricultural tax revenues surpassed the total income of many other nations.
Thus, compared to most countries, East Africa's national income wasn't small. And most of that income went to supporting newborns.
This covered essentials like food, clothing, housing, and education—allowing for unrestrained population growth over the past decade. But Ernst now planned to terminate that support program in 1875. If people kept having children at this rate, the government couldn't afford it.
Currently, East Africa's population was somewhat of a mystery. For three years, no census had been conducted. Not because of negligence—but because accurate tracking was impossible. Any count would be outdated within days due to birth rates. Conducting annual censuses would exhaust the statistical bureau.
Of course, ending newborn subsidies couldn't be done overnight. The policy change had to be communicated across the entire country. Otherwise, families might continue birthing large broods in ignorance.
"East Africa's population growth has exceeded expectations. Starting next year, apart from maintaining free education, all other forms of birth subsidies will be reduced or stopped," Ernst said at the national population meeting. "Some families already have seven or eight children—some even ten or more (mainly family-based immigrants). If this becomes the norm, what will East Africa's population be twenty years from now? Newborns are becoming a burden. We need to bring our birth rate back to normal—less government intervention and guidance."
Following Ernst's speech, the meeting erupted into debate.
"Your Highness, while our birth rate is high, our child survival rate may not be that high."
"That may be true, but our survival rate is still better than in many underdeveloped regions. Even if most families don't reach eight children, four or five is common. And this isn't the ceiling. We've built a solid population base in just ten years—what about the next decade?"
"Not to mention immigrants. Their numbers are substantial. Our immigration scale is similar to America's. Given this economic crisis, we could easily see another million people arrive in East Africa."
"That's why we must limit not just newborn subsidies, but immigration as well. East Africa may still be vast, but land is not infinite. We can't recklessly import people in the name of development."
"There's also the issue of national identity. As an immigrant country, East Africa's national consciousness is still fragile. An unending influx of outsiders will dilute what we've built."
While some opposed the changes, many supported them—though most arguments for keeping subsidies were unconvincing.
After all, East Africa wasn't enforcing birth control. It was merely stopping subsidies. No one was banned from having children—but now it depended on whether their income could support it. While families could still choose to have many children through frugality, child abandonment was a serious crime in East Africa. People needed to budget wisely and plan accordingly.
"Alright, it's settled," Ernst said. "There are five months left. Notify all levels of government. This policy change must reach every household. Starting next year, all newborns will no longer be eligible for government subsidies. Of course, pregnancies already underway this year should be properly documented—these next five months are the final window."
During the 1874 routine government conference, East Africa's population policy officially shifted—signaling that the country no longer needed immigration to maintain or grow its workforce.
East Africa's population was no longer a national weakness. And now, the country's demographic focus would shift from quantity to quality.
Though the western interior still had sparse population, the eastern regions had enough surplus to begin filling it. And immigration was still ongoing. Absorbing the west was now just a matter of time.
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