Chapter 535: A Lagging Agrarian State
Port construction took long-term planning, so Britain's plan wouldn't fully materialize soon. If they did pour resources into Maputo, Ernst wryly wondered if East Africa might one day reap the benefits. Meanwhile, the British and Portuguese similarly dreamed of one day taking East Africa's ports for themselves.
…
Early 1880
East Africa's census continued, and preliminary results emerged. In 1879, total registered immigrants plus newborns reached around 34.72 million, while the Black population sat at 19.62 million.
Combined, the total population hovered around 54 million—greater than the U.S., Germany, and most other nations.
Of course, East Africa usually didn't count Blacks as "population," yet their labor had undeniably fueled the country's massive growth.
With over 50 million inhabitants including Blacks, East Africa now met the definition of a major population power—fourth worldwide after the Far Eastern Empire, the British Empire, and Tsarist Russia.
If you exclude Blacks, East Africa still surpassed Japan and was on par with Austria-Hungary's population, lagging Germany only slightly. That put East Africa among the world's leading demographic rivals.
"In today's world, life expectancy everywhere is quite low—maybe 30–40 years. In East Africa, despite our best efforts, average life expectancy is only about 35. That's roughly global average," Health Minister Baerlaeder reported.
"The main cause of high mortality is disease. This is especially true for our immigrants. Many arrived with underlying conditions, then faced long sea voyages plus tropical diseases like malaria. Short lifespans are common, but that's no different than elsewhere.
"We lack sufficient healthcare resources, especially doctors. Still, we do have ample supplies of standardized essential medicines, such as quinine and some anti-inflammatories. Traditional Chinese Medicine also played a key role early on, filling gaps in primary care."
"Meanwhile, our birthrate is at a record high. But so is infant mortality. The good news is our stable climate means fewer complications during childbirth. The bad news is we lack vaccines for children."
In reality, hardly any country could offer such benefits to newborns, let alone East Africa. Qualified healthcare workers were too few.
"Overall, East Africa's population is extremely young—far younger than most nations. Even more so thanks to our Black population, which shoulders most of the labor cost for major projects. That underpins social stability and the health of our citizens.
"But the decline in the Black population has slowed. First, we've used them for major infrastructure projects rather than exporting them. Second, global demand for slaves has dropped. The post-crisis economy means fewer buyers.
"Over the past few years, Black numbers have fallen by over 4 million, even though we annexed new land from Portugal—so it should've increased. But total Black population is still down significantly. That said, the rate of decline is slower than before when we used warfare to drive them out.
"Our national projects now need more Blacks for labor. If we want to quickly develop our lands, there's only one way: sacrificing manpower. But that can't be you or me, or any East African citizen—so it must be Blacks."
"So many Blacks won't be sold but die here instead. We have to be prepared for that—especially cremation arrangements."
It wasn't about destroying evidence; East Africa already required cremation for sanitary reasons.
"Nationwide, over 85% work in agriculture, while only about 5 million—covering industry, commerce, military, and transport—are non-farmers. That shows East Africa is still a backward agrarian nation."
"Last year, 80% of government revenue came from agricultural taxes. With a growing population, inland development, improved tools, and rising yields, farm tax revenue should keep increasing."
"In foreign trade, tropical cash-crop exports account for over 60% of earnings. But we face logistics and storage challenges—especially for perishables like fruits and vegetables that need faster shipment and better preservation."
"In our 1879 economic data (excluding the Hechingen Consortium), heavy industry accounted for 75% of total industrial output, mainly in steel and rail, spurring mining and related sectors. Light industry grew slowly, mostly as small workshops."
East Africa seemed to be following the Soviet path, but thus far without negative consequences. Heavy industry dominated East Africa's relatively small industrial sector—yet East Africa was still fundamentally agrarian, so the transition to an industrial economy remained manageable.
"After 15 years of development, East Africa is entering a new phase: we're basically a 'normal' country. Our population gap is filled, but we now face the challenge of transforming from an agricultural state into an industrial one."
East Africa was "normal" in that it resembled most countries in the world. Its slave system persisted, but that would vanish in the next 20–30 years.
Between East Africa's own measures and Blacks' short average lifespan—barely hitting 20-something—two decades from now, most Blacks would be gone even if East Africa did nothing. Over time, that alone would end slavery.
In truth, Ernst had begun more systematically exploiting them. He'd once wanted to export every Black abroad; now he had parted with the last vestiges of that scruple.
Every year, more Blacks died in East Africa—particularly on large infrastructure projects done almost entirely by hand and lacking medical support. Mortality rates remained high.
But by the century's end, Ernst would add even more pressure on the Black population, using them for harsh environmental projects that required massive labor.
The mountainous roads of the Black Forest Province, for example, could now be built more cheaply by using these disposable laborers—completing vital infrastructure more rapidly.
Yes, such projects might cost lives. But with East Africa's labor costs at their lowest right now, it was the ideal time to build. Later generations would only need to do upkeep and fine-tuning.
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